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| 摘要: |
| 本文中，我们将人口年龄结构引入经典的Solow-Swan模型，探讨人口年龄结构变动对经济增长的影响.利用比较定理证明当人口趋于稳定的人口结构时刻划模型的微分方程的解是渐近稳定的.通过数值仿真，我们看到经济增长在少年抚养下降时加速，在老年抚养上升时减缓.在人口转变时期存在“人口红利”，人口老龄化导致的劳动力人数占人口的比重下降会使经济增长减缓甚至下降. |
| 关键词: Solow-Swan模型 微分不等式 渐近稳定性 人口年龄结构 数值仿真 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:O19 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助（71271158）. |
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| THE SOLOW-SWAN MODEL WITH AGE STRUCTURE CHANGING AND SIMULATION |
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CAI Dong-han,GE Fu-fu,CHEN Zhong-bin
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper,the age structure is integrated into the classical Solow-Swan model to inquire the affection of demographic changes on the economic growth.It is proved that solution of the model is asymptotical stable when the age structure tends a steady state and the economic grows to a stable state after age structure change ended.By numerical simulation,we show that the economic growth is speeded up by the decline of the young dependency and slowed down by the increasing of old dependency.And there exists demographic dividend in the period of demographic transition.With population aging and the labor force population accounts for the proportion of the total population decreasing,the economic growth slows and even declines. |
| Key words: Solow-Swan model differential inequality asymptotical stability age structure numerical simulation |
