Huang et al. [1] proved central limit theorem for nonhomogeneous Markov chain with finite state space. Gao [2] obtained moderate deviation principles for homogeneous Markov chain. De Acosta [3] studied moderate deviations lower bounds for homogeneous Markov chain. De Acosta and Chen [4] established moderate deviations upper bounds for homogeneous Markov chain. It is natural and important to study central limit theorem and moderate deviation for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain. We wish to investigate a central limit theorem and moderate deviation for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain under the condition of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain in Cesàro sense.
Suppose that $ \{X_n, n\ge 0\} $ is a nonhomogeneous Markov chain taking values in $ S = \{1, 2, \cdots\} $ with initial probability
and the transition matrices
where $ p_n(i, j) = \mathbb{P}(X_n = j|X_{n-1} = i) $. Write
When the Markov chain is homogeneous, $ P $, $ P^k $ denote $ P_n $, $ P^{(m, m+k)} $, respectively.
If $ P $ is a stochastic matrix, then we write
where $ [a]^{+} = \max\{0, a\} $.
Let $ A = (a_{ij}) $ be a matrix defined as $ S\times S $. Write $ \|A\| = \sup\limits_{i\in S}\sum\limits_{j\in S}|a_{ij}|. $
If $ h = (h_1, h_2, \cdots) $, then we write $ \|h\| = \sum\limits_{j\in S}|h_j| $. If $ g = (g_1, g_2, \cdots)' $, then we write $ \|g\| = \sup\limits_{i\in S}|g_i| $. The properties below hold (see Yang [5, 6])
(a) $ \|AB\|\le \|A\|\|B\| $ for all matrices $ A $ and $ B $;
(b) $ \|P\| = 1 $ for all stochastic matrix $ P $.
Suppose that $ R $ is a 'constant' stochastic matrix each row of which is the same. Then $ \{P_n, n\ge 1\} $ is said to be strongly ergodic (with a constant stochastic matrix $ R $) if for all $ m\ge 0 $, $ \lim\limits_{n\rightarrow\infty}\|P^{(m, m+n)}-R\| = 0. $ The sequence $ \{P_n, n\ge 1\} $ is said to converge in the Cesàro sense (to a constant stochastic matrix $ R $) if for every $ m\ge 0 $,
The sequence $ \{P_n, n\ge 1\} $ is said to uniformly converge in the Cesàro sense (to a constant stochastic matrix $ R $) if
$ S $ is divided into $ d $ disjoint subspaces $ C_0 $, $ C_1 $, $ \cdots $, $ C_{d-1} $, by an irreducible stochastic matrix $ P $, of period $ d $ ($ d\ge 1 $) (see Theorem 3.3 of Hu [7]), and $ P^d $ gives $ d $ stochastic matrices $ \{T_l, 0\le l\le d-1\} $, where $ T_l $ is defined on $ C_l $. As in Bowerman et al. [8] and Yang [5], we shall discuss such an irreducible stochastic matrix $ P $, of period $ d $ that $ T_l $ is strongly ergodic for $ l = 0, 1, \cdots, d-1 $. This matrix will be called periodic strongly ergodic.
Remark 1.1 If $ S = \{1, 2, \cdots\} $, $ d = 2 $, $ P = (p(i, j)) $, $ p(1, 2) = 1 $, $ p(k, k-1) = 1-p(k, k+1) = \frac{k-1}{k} $ for $ k\ge 2 $, then $ P $ is an irreducible stochastic matrix of period $ 2 $. Moreover,
for $ k\ge 2 $.
where
for $ k\ge 1 $. The solution of $ \pi P = \pi $ and $ \sum\limits_{i}\pi(i) = 1 $ are
for $ n\ge 3 $.
Theorem 1.1 Suppose $ \{X_n, n\ge0\} $ is a countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain taking values in $ S = \{1, 2, \cdots\} $ with initial distribution of (1.1) and transition matrices of (1.2). Assume that $ f $ is a real function satisfying $ |f(x)|\le M $ for all $ x\in \mathbb{R} $. Suppose that $ P $ is a periodic strongly ergodic stochastic matrix. Assume that $ R $ is a constant stochastic matrix each row of which is the left eigenvector $ \pi = (\pi(1), \pi(2), \cdots) $ of $ P $ satisfying $ \pi P = \pi $ and $ \sum\limits_{i}\pi(i) = 1 $. Assume that
and
Moreover, if the sequence of $ \delta $-coefficient satisfies
then we have
where $ S_n = \sum\limits_{k = 1}^{n}f(X_k) $, $ \stackrel{D}{\Rightarrow} $ stands for the convergence in distribution.
Theorem 1.2 Under the hypotheses of Theorem 1.1, if moreover
then for each open set $ G\subset \mathbb{R}^1 $,
and for each closed set $ F\subset \mathbb{R}^1 $,
where $ I(x): = \frac{x^2}{2\theta} $.
In Sections 2 and 3, we prove Theorems 1.1 and 1.2. The ideas of proofs of Theorem 1.1 come from Huang et al. [1] and Yang [5].
Let
Write $ {\mathcal F}_n = \sigma(X_k, 0\le k\le n) $. Then $ \{W_n, {\mathcal F}_n, n\ge1\} $ is a martingale, so that $ \{D_n, {\mathcal F}_n, n\ge 0\} $ is the related martingale difference. For $ n = 1, 2, \cdots $, set
It is clear that
As in Huang et al. [1], to prove Theorem 1.1, we first state the central limit theorem associated with the stochastic sequence of $ \{W_n\}_{n\ge 1} $, which is a key step to establish Theorem 1.1.
Lemma 2.1 Assume $ \{X_n, n\ge0\} $ is a countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain taking values in $ S = \{1, 2, \cdots\} $ with initial distribution of (1.1) and transition matrices of (1.2). Suppose $ f $ is a real function satisfying $ |f(x)|\le M $ for all $ x\in \mathbb{R} $. Assume that $ P $ is a periodic strongly ergodic stochastic matrix, and $ R $ is a constant stochastic matrix each row of which is the left eigenvector $ \pi = (\pi(1), \pi(2), \cdots) $ of $ P $ satisfying $ \pi P = \pi $ and $ \sum\limits_{i}\pi(i) = 1 $. Suppose that (1.4) and (1.5) are satisfied, and $ \{W_n, n\ge0\} $ is defined by (2.2). Then
where $ \stackrel{D}{\Rightarrow} $ stands for the convergence in distribution.
As in Huang et al. [1], to establish Lemma 2.1, we need two important statements below such as Lemma 2.2 (see Brown [9]) and Lemma 2.3 (see Yang [6]).
Lemma 2.2 Assume that $ (\Omega, {\mathcal F}, \mathbb{P}) $ is a probability space, and $ \{{\mathcal F}_n, n = 1, 2, \cdots\} $ is an increasing sequence of $ \sigma $-algebras. Suppose that $ \{M_n, {\mathcal F}_n, n = 1, 2, \cdots\} $ is a martingale, denote its related martingale difference by $ \xi_0 = 0 $, $ \xi_n = M_n-M_{n-1} $ $ (n = 1, 2, \cdots) $. For $ n = 1, 2, \cdots $, write
where $ {\mathcal F}_0 $ is the trivial $ \sigma $-algebra. Assume that the following holds
(i)
(ii) the Lindeberg condition holds, i.e., for any $ \epsilon>0 $,
where $ I(\cdot) $ denotes the indicator function. Then we have
where $ \stackrel{P}{\Rightarrow} $ and $ \stackrel{D}{\Rightarrow} $ denote convergence in probability and in distribution respectively.
Write $ \delta_i(j) = \delta_{ij} $, $ (i, j\in S) $. Set
Lemma 2.3 Assume that $ \{X_n, n\ge 0\} $ is a countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain taking values in $ S = \{1, 2, \cdots\} $ with initial distribution $ (1.1) $, and transition matrices $ (1.2) $. Suppose that $ P $ is a periodic strongly ergodic stochastic matrix, and $ R $ is matrix each row of which is the left eigenvector $ \pi = (\pi(1), \pi(2), \cdots) $ of $ P $ satisfying $ \pi P = \pi $ and $ \sum\limits_{i}\pi(i) = 1 $. Assume (1.4) holds. Then
Now let's come to establish Lemma 2.1.
Proof of Lemma 2.1 Applications of properties of the conditional expectation and Markov chains yield
We first use (1.4) and Fubini's theorem to obtain
Hence, it follows from (2.10) and $ \pi P = \pi $ that
We next claim that
Indeed, we use (1.4) and (2.9) to have
Thus we use Lemma 2.3 again to obtain
Therefore (2.12) holds. Combining (2.11) and (2.12) results in
which gives
Since $ \{V(W_n)/n, n\ge 1\} $ is uniformly bounded, $ \{V(W_n)/n, n\ge 1\} $ is uniformly integrable. By applying the above two facts, and (1.5), we have
Therefore we obtain
Also note that $ \{D^2_n = [f(X_n)-E[f(X_n)|X_{n-1}]]^2\} $ is uiformly integrable. Thus
which implies that the Lindeberg condition holds. Application of Lemma 2.2 yields (2.3). This establishes Lemma 2.1.
Proof of Theorem 1.1 Note that
Write
Let's evaluate the upper bound of $ |E[f(X_k)|X_{k-1}]-E[f(X_k)]| $. In fact, we use the C-K formula of Markov chain to obtain
here
Application of (1.6) yields
Combining (1.6), (2.3), (2.16), and (2.17), results in (1.7). This proves Theorem 1.1.
We use Gärtner-Ellis theorem, and exponential equivalence methods to prove Theorem 1.2. By applying Taylor's formula of $ e^{x} $, (1.5), (1.8), (2.15), Fubini's theorem, properties of conditional expectations and martingale, we claim that for any $ t\in \mathbb{R}^1 $,
In fact, by (1.8),
and the claim is proved. Hence, by using Gärtner-Ellis theorem, we deduce that $ W_n/a(n) $ satisfies the moderate deviation theorem with rate function $ I(x) = \frac{x^2}{2\theta} $. It follows from (1.8) and (2.17) that $ \forall \epsilon>0 $,
Thus, by the exponential equivalent method (see Theorem 4.2.13 of Dembo and Zeitouni [10], Gao [11]), we see that $ \{\frac{S_n-E[S_n]}{a(n)}\} $ satisfies the same moderate deviation theorem as $ \{\frac{W_n}{a(n)}\} $ with rate function $ I(x) = \frac{x^2}{2\theta} $. This completes the proof.