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| 摘要: |
| 本文研究了灰色模型对振荡序列的预测问题.在已有GM（1，1|sin）模型的基础上，利用分数阶算子对原始序列进行累加生成的方法，获得了分数阶累加GM（1，1|sin）模型的表达式；以平均相对误差最小化为目标，利用粒子群算法求解非线性优化问题，获得了模型的最优参数.最后以城市交通流的模拟预测为例，结果表明本文提出的模型比GM（1，1|sin）模型具有更高的模拟精度，推广了GM（1，1|sin）预测模型的结果. |
| 关键词: 灰色系统 分数阶累加 GM(1,1 sin)模型 振荡序列 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:O175.1 |
| 基金项目:广东省普通高校特色创新资助项目（2016KTSCX164）；广东理工学院科研资助项目（GKJ2017025）；广东理工学院科研资助项目（GKJ2016002）. |
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| RESEARCH ON GM (1, 1|sin) MODEL BASED ON FRACTIONAL ORDER ACCUMULATION AND ITS APPLICATION |
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LI Ya-nan
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, the prediction problem of oscillation sequence by grey model is studied. On the basis of the existing GM(1, 1|sin) model, by using the fractional order operator to accumulate the original sequence, a fractional order cumulative GM(1, 1|sin) model is obtained. Moreover, aiming at minimizing the mean relative error, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear optimization problem, and the optimal parameters of the model are obtained. Finally, taking the simulation and prediction of urban traffic flow as an example, the results show that the proposed model exhibits a higher simulation precision than the GM(1, 1|sin) model, which extends the results of the GM(1, 1|sin) prediction model. |
| Key words: grey model fractional order accumulation GM(1, 1 sin) model oscillation sequence |
